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| A kiss of death, or foreshadowing? Photo Credit: WWE.com |
I get the feeling that we're about to witness two ascensions on Sunday. There will be obvious elevation in the Blue Briefcase match. Of the seven men competing, only one, Jack Swagger, has held anything resembling either top title, and one other, Wade Barrett, has ever gotten a shot at either title on pay-per-view. In the Red Briefcase match, there are several former Champions and high-powered main event types. The only two who haven't held the WWE Championship are Christian and Daniel Bryan, and both have the Big Gold Belt on their resumes. Of the two, one has no chance to win and the other has got to be the odds-on favorite. I'll leave it to you to figure out which is which.
I will break each participant down and tell you why they should or shouldn't win their respective briefcases in this preview. Sure, the rest of the card looks pretty damn good. Henry/Cena will be a spectacle if nothing else. Chris Jericho seems to be the type of veteran who can handle Ryback. You know Dolph Ziggler and Alberto del Rio are money. But this year, it's all about the briefcases. Here are your breakdowns:
BLUE BRIEFCASE
Antonio Cesaro
Why he should win: WWE is a wrestling company. Well, they're an entertainment company, but they entertain via wrestling. If that's the modus operandi, then shouldn't one of the best wrestlers on the goddamn roster be holding one of the flagship titles? Cesaro is money against any opponent in any setting. If you want to drive home the fact that your consigliere-level Championship is important, then you leave people wowed when they watch a match competed for it. Cesaro is one of the few guys on the roster who can do that every time out.
Why he shouldn't win: The only argument I might have is that the field is loaded and Cesaro is needed elsewhere. While Rhodes Scholars in theory may have run its course as a tag team (in practice, hell fucking no, they should still be together), the team of Double Dutch could do some damage in the tag ranks, again, in theory. I have a hard time coming up with any other reason why Cesaro shouldn't be given that briefcase and be allowed to run with it as far as his superior Swiss physique can take him.
What odds does he have of winning: 100-1. It's only a gut feeling at this point, but I just don't think WWE has it in them to pull the trigger on Cesaro just yet, sadly.
Cody Rhodes
Why he should win: At some point, you have to pull the trigger on a guy, right? He's been in the pressure cooker for a good long time, but a lot of it has been spinning wheels in terms of position on the card. However, getting a chance to work Mania programs against both Rey Mysterio and The Big Show is definite main-event-crucible material. Rhodes has been waiting for a true breakout, and much like Dolph Ziggler in last year's Blue match, he's due.
Why he shouldn't win: I honestly feel that the briefcase shouldn't be the thing that breaks up Rhodes Scholars. If Rhodes wins, I can sense professional jealousy being the follow up to that spark of a breakup that happened in the RAW tag match a couple of weeks back. I'd seriously think that a better route to dissolve what has been the most criminally misbooked tag team in recent WWE history would be to have one cost the other the briefcase inadvertently.
What odds does he have of winning: 5-1. I'd peg Rhodes the favorite, but he seems to be the guy coming out of the Rhodes Scholars break up as the good guy, and good guys don't cash in briefcases usually. Other than that? He fits the profile.
Damien Sandow
Why he should win: Damien Sandow should win the Blue Briefcase because he is WWE's most complete performer. I type that with a straight face, knowing that Daniel Bryan is on the roster and lighting the world on fire. However, I think Sandow bests him in character department, if just barely, while Bryan's edge in ring ability isn't as far above Sandow's as one might think. In a perfect world, Bryan and Sandow would headline at least one WrestleMania. The briefcase would the most perfect character prop for Sandow more than it would be for anyone else in this specific match.
Why he shouldn't win: See Rhodes, Cody.
What odds does he have of winning: 12-1. Usually, the most obvious candidate that should win rarely is the one who does win, but Sandow does have main event written all over him. They'll give him a briefcase sooner or later.
Dean Ambrose
Why he should win: Sometimes, you just have a guy who is going to be the most dynamic performer in the company, and sometimes, that guy just can't be denied. While The Shield has been a juggernaut of a trio since debuting at Survivor Series, the group has done so in spite of individual traits of its respective parts with the flamboyant exception of Seth Rollins' throbbing death wish. Being the leader of a group obsessed with making WWE its yard is reason enough to want to give Ambrose the briefcase, but even the "we want justice" narrative of the group has been unable to wholly hold back Ambrose's bursting-at-the-seams capacity to be a complete and total iconoclast in the ring. Sometimes, you let the cream rise to the top.
Why he shouldn't win:K. Sawyer Paul made the excellent argument that while traditional metrics seem to indicate that holding belts is a good thing, the Tag Team Championships and United States Title have weighed down The Shield in their momentum. Before, they were tangling with main eventers. Now, they have to deign themselves to face off against others who also need to be fed from the teat of eternal starpower. The question isn't whether he should be in a match for a briefcase, it's whether he's actually in the right one. The WWE Championship seems to be the only belt with currency nowadays. This might just be a continuation of the Shield's wheel-spinning.
What odds does he have of winning: 7-1. It's in Philly. While Ambrose nominally is from Ohio, Philadelphia and Combat Zone Wrestling are where he cut his teeth and became the all-encompassing evil genius that he is today. If I wasn't so sure that WWE had a hard-on for RED BELLY, I'd put down all the money I have allotted for gambling on wrestling on Ambrose here. That total, by the by, is 42 cents. I'm frisky, but not stupid.
Fandango
Why he should win: Because he's good at dancing with a comely lass with two left feet? Since Fandangoing died a horrible death the week after it became a thing, I'm not entirely sure I have any reason.
Why he shouldn't win: Fandango is an invaluably talented performer, but his concussion stymied his momentum. In fact, I'd question why a concussion victim is in a high-impact ladder match predicated on huge bumps so soon after recovery. I think he's just in there to keep relevant. His real ascent may begin afterwards by feuding with Curtis Axel for the Intercontinental Championship.
What odds does he have of winning: 1000-1. Right now, he's in his "one-note-gimmick" phase of his character. I feel like WWE evolves their top guys before letting them taste the main event or some level close to it.
Jack Swagger
Why he should win: I'm just gonna lay my cards on the table and say I don't think Jack Swagger should even come close to winning this match.
Why he shouldn't win: Why? Well, let's see, he's run afoul of the law on a substance that would have bought him a wellness suspension if he tested positive for it in a piss test. He not only injured the newly minted World Champion within two weeks of him winning, but also went and injured himself shortly thereafter. He's never really clicked with the fans in any character despite ample opportunities to do so. He's not even the best personality managed by Zeb Colter anymore.
What odds does he have of winning: 500-1. Swagger is WWE's version of "trying to make fetch happen," but his ship has sailed. I think they know it too.
RED BELLY... err Wade Barrett
Why he should win: I've become bored with Wade Barrett, tired of him, even. Some of that probably has to do with the mammoth holding pattern he's been in, but at the same time, the guy is the most inflexible wrestler I've ever seen. No, it doesn't mean he's Khali-levels of immobile, but he has a formula and doesn't deviate from it. His character is that he's this bare-knuckles survivor from the dungeons and pits of underground England? Okay, I'm gonna wrestle the exact same way I did as the leader of the Nexus. Okay though, this is why I think he should win, not reasons why I've got malaise out the bunghole for RED BELLY.
My point is that while yeah, it should fall on Barrett to change and be adaptable, why is it that WWE can't see they have a limited dude who shines in one role but isn't so good in another, and thus play to his strengths? A long time ago, on a TV show that replaced my beloved WWECW, Barrett was a dynamic, magical figure, cutting promos about winds of change and exuding personality. There's a good wrestling personality embedded within Barrett's DNA. It might not be as adaptable as, say, CM Punk's, but hey, some of the greats weren't asked to do a whole bunch of different things over their careers either. Maybe winning Money in the Bank is the thing that lets Barrett let go of the bare-knuckle BS, leave his Dog Boner finisher for a guy whom it really fits (like, I don't know, Kassius Ohno), and continue to evolve the character he cultivated as the leader of the Nexus.
Why he shouldn't win: I hate using the credibility argument, because in wrestling, you're only as credible as they let you be. Plus, it's not like in real life sporting type competitions that teams or players catch fire after smelling like ass for extended periods of time. But challenging for a top title means you should probably at least look like someone who should be holding a title. That's not Barrett's look at the moment.
What odds does he have of winning: 2-1. He fits both the "dude having non-Dusty Rhodes-related hard times who seems out of nowhere" and the "dude WWE has a boner to put a title on" criteria. I'd be shocked if he didn't win.
RED BRIEFCASE
Christian
Why he should win: He may have been given the "Captain Charisma" nickname by either himself or some writers as a device to set himself apart from others, but he's spent his entire career proving it. I've always thought Christian was the far better performer than Edge was, but his size precluded him from being put in the same stratosphere by WWE. If the theme of the day is letting veterans combine their natural talents (and Christian's natural talents are "being good at everything there is to be good at in wrestling") with savvy, then there's no reason why Christian can't get one more match, this time for the WWE Championship.
Why he shouldn't win: He just came back, and it feels like the company has lapped him in terms of dudes who should challenge either John Cena or Mark Henry at this point. I'm not saying he should never get another crack at the gold again. I'm saying he maybe should work a few feuds first and really get the crowd lathered up for his one more match.
What odds does he have of winning: 10,000-1. Christian is in this match because he's a good guy who knows how to do the ladder match thing. That's about it.
CM Punk
Why he should win: He is Mr. Money in the Bank, the only guy who won the actual ladder match for the briefcase twice. He's also the BEST IN THE WOOOOOOORLD, and I think a dude who held the WWE Championship for a year and a whole piggy bank full of change should get another shot to top his record. It's only fair.
Why he shouldn't win: He's John Cena for the hardcore crowd now. He doesn't need a belt, and the belt doesn't need him. The Leviathan at SummerSlam awaits, and he won't care whether Punk has a title, a briefcase, or a care in the world.
What odds does he have of winning: 15-1. I wouldn't be totally flabbergasted if Punk/Lesnar at SummerSlam ended up being for the title, but I also wouldn't put Punk down as a lock either.
Daniel Bryan
Why he should win: Because he's Daniel Bryan, duh.
In all seriousness though, Bryan winning Money in the Bank would be striking when the iron is hot. It's not at its hottest, mind you. If that were to happen, he would have been wrestling Cena for the title at this event, not vying for a shot at it. He also wouldn't have followed up beating Orton clean as a whistle with more spinning of wheels. However, what's done is done. Bryan right now is the most thermonuclear star WWE has, and unlike others, he's got a legitimate claim to being both the best wrestler and best personality.
Why he shouldn't win: Imagine Daniel Bryan winning the briefcase and cashing in to face Cena or whomever at SummerSlam or an off pay-per-view. That would be pretty sweet. But you know what would be even more triumphant? Imagine Daniel Bryan challenging for the WWE Championship in the main event of WrestleMania because he won the Royal Rumble. Patience is a wonderful thing. Let someone else have the dumb briefcase.
What odds does he have of winning: 1-2. There are times when WWE reverse-telegraphs a win on the RAW right before a pay-per-view, and there are other times when they have a crowning moment that they have to drive the point home as hard as they can. I feel like this is a case of the latter.
Kane
Why he should win: No one in WWE has done better overall character work than Kane in the last year. No one. Again, if WWE is setting up to have its retiring guys getting a shot to get one last hurrah in stories that play off their long careers and veteran savvy, they could do far worse than Kane. Plus, it may be the one thing that could push Bryan's character development into overdrive.
Why he shouldn't win: I'm not entirely sure he'll even be in the match. I don't know if that stretcher job means he's out (although I don't think he will miss it), but you can't win a match you're not in.
What odds does he have of winning: 30-1. I'm still not sure he's going to compete in the match, but hey, why not have the Big Red Monster, the WWE's best character actor in the last year, get one more run?
Randy Orton
Why he should win: Orton is about due for a heel turn, and there aren't a whole lot of guys who are better at being a scheming bad guy than Orton is. I think a huge part of why his face run has fallen so flat is because he's pretty much "Stone Cold" Steve Austin without Austin's in-your-face coolness. Orton's better as the Viper, the guy who picks his spots and sadistically tortures opponents until they not only are defeated, but are happy to be done with him. The briefcase fits that motif perfectly.
Why he shouldn't win: Even though Orton's kinda young, he feels old hat, thanks to the young age he began his ascent to the top. He's always going to be around, but I'd feel a lot better if he was just there as a gatekeeper or as the world's youngest emeritus type feud guy.
What odds does he have of winning: 5-1. I feel like if it's not Bryan, it's Orton. He wants to turn heel in the worst way, and a guerrilla cash-in on Cena or some other beloved face Champion (Bryan???) would be a great way to do pull that trigger.
Rob van Dam
Why he should win: Because WWE hates me.
Oh, there's actually a really good reason why RVD should win this match. It has to do with the "Monster of the Month" idea that Pete Holby most recently floated on the podcast as well as playing off past rivalries and threads for John Cena as WWE Champion. Assuming that Cena is going to remain Champion after the night's over, van Dam trying to catch lightning in a bottle twice by cashing in nobly at SummerSlam wouldn't be the worst idea in the world from a business standpoint. I just had to swallow a rush of bile coming up my esophagus typing that, but begrudgingly, I think it makes a little sense.
Why he shouldn't win: Because the Rob van Dam whom they showed in his comeback teaser vignettes doesn't move at nearly the same speed as the RVD they're getting back, and even then, I wasn't a huge fan of THAT RVD in the first place.
What odds does he have of winning: 12-1. WWE has done dumber things.
Sheamus
Why he should win: The guy is obviously at the forefront of all WWE's usual campaigns that they have their top guys participate in. He's also one of the most heavily pushed and protected stars on the roster who can turn in a great match with any opponent. That sounds like the resume of a Champion to me.
Why he shouldn't win: I honestly don't think Sheamus should win the title again unless Creative changes the direction of how babyfaces act in the company or until he turns heel. Cena is a bad hero, but Sheamus would be like if Dr. Doom got his own comic with the expectation that he was the good guy without changing anything about his tactics or attitudes. That stinks to me.
What odds does he have of winning: 10-1. The narrative surrounding Sheamus indicates to me that WWE wants him to be their next franchise player, or at least A next franchise player. I don't think this is his moment, but then again, WWE is a strange company.
The Field - This option is here to cover for Kane's potential absence from the match. I don't think that his stretcher job at RAW Monday was a slam dunk message that he's out, but hey, it would give new general manager Brad Maddox an outlet to flex his newly-built administrative muscle. I'll put their odds at 20-1 to win, because the likely candidates from the field - Bray Wyatt, Brock Lesnar, The Undertaker, etc. - all have valid reasons to be excited for them in the title scene. However, I still think Kane's working this match.