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| Will defenses figure Kaepernick and the read-option out? Photo via SFgate.com |
1. Do you have any expectations for the Eagles this year?
I actually have none. Zilch. Nada. I have no idea how this season is going to shake out, nor do I care. Well, the preceding was a lie. I DO care about on field performance, but only insomuch as I want to see whether Chip Kelly's innovative offense can translate to a pro level. He certainly has the skill position players, inheriting talented backs and wideouts from former coach Andy Reid's penchant for picking blazing fast dudes and stocking them. The offensive line looks like it's going to be solid this year.
But what about the quarterback? Michael Vick has looked good so far, pick six notwithstanding against Jacksonville last night, but he's also an older quarterback with bad habits. Nick Foles is younger, but he's slower than Great Khali trying to run the 40 yard dash with lead boots and a cow strapped to his back. The last time I checked, quarterback is a pretty important position, and right now, only a disaster under center might sabotage the offense. While each QB has flaws, I don't see them being disastrous.
The defense though? Yeah, that could be disastrous. But hey, as long as they get gobs of yards and score bunches of points...
2. ESPN recently pulled out of a documentary detailing concussions and brain trauma in football, rumored to be under the duress of Roger Goodell. Is that the last straw for you as the Ginger Hammer as commissioner?
I was done with him during the lockout, when he was pushing for 18 games out of one side of his mouth and then talking about player safety out the other. Two more regular season games, with all the wear and tear and HARD HITZ that come along with them, would do more to undo any bullshit safety rules he would enact. But hey, all in the name of revenue, right?
Goodell is nothing more than a lapdog for the owners at this point. All he wants is to fight for his fellow rich white males like Jerry Richardson or Stan Kroenke or anyone else trying to extort taxpayers out of money for renovations for stadia younger than 20 years of age. But no, Johnny SportsTalkCaller will continue to claim about how the players are overpaid without realizing how much revenue these shitbags bring in and how little they pay out for major expenses.
So I don't see this move by Goodell being the backbreaker, because that backbreaker came a long time ago. Roger Goodell is awful, and he's "hurting the shield" more than the players he accuses of doing.
3. Okay, let's get back to the fun. The read-option swept the league last year. What do you think defenses will do this year to adjust to it?
Mike Tunison on the podcast this week says that defenses won't pick up on the read-option this year, and I would like to believe him. Remember, only Robert Griffin III ran it all year, and he didn't even run it the way that Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick did. I don't know how much tape exists and whether that tape encompasses the breadth of what players in the read-option can do.
My personal opinion though? I hope it flourishes. I want there to be as many offenses in the NFL as possible. Let Chip Kelly's offense be successful. Let the great pro style offenses continue to work. Spread offenses, read-option, power-running... let 'em all work. Variety is the spice of life.
4. How many yards does Adrian Peterson have to run for for the Vikings to have a chance this year?
All of them? Their defense got a bit more inexperienced, and it wasn't that good to begin with. Christian Ponder is also going to have to prove he can be competent as well so that Peterson doesn't face all kinds of eight-man boxes. Plus, he'll regress some. While a 1500 yard season might be great for most other backs, but for Peterson, it might seem like a disappointment.
5. Which AFC East team has any remote chance of ending the Patriots' reign of terror?
The short answer is none of the above. The Pats can lose every one of their skill players, and Tom Brady has a unique ability to elevate the replacements into production. They lost Wes Welker and replaced him with a younger analogue, Danny Amendola. I get the same sort of feeling about the latter that I got about the former when he first arrived in New England from Miami. Even with one tight end banged up and the other a possible serial killer, I don't think the offense is going to suffer. The defense? Well, it more or less stood pat (no pun intended, I swear), but they always seem to scrape by with the league average and overwhelm with offensive firepower.
Now, did any team in the division make strides to actually challenge them? Miami lost their top running back, Reggie Bush, but upgraded at wide receiver and will no doubt see some improvements from Ryan Tannehill's solid rookie year. They also upgraded their defense, which was actually ranked one slot ahead of New England's according to Football Outsiders' Adjusted DVOA last year. They seem like the likeliest candidate to challenge for something greater than second place with a losing record.
I kinda like the Bills this year too, even they seem like they're in the same mess as they were last year. They added some offensive weapons and will have a full year of CJ Spiller, gamechanger. Now, their success will hinge on whether EJ Manuel will be able to carry the load on offense under center, a risky bet at the very least, but anything's gotta be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, right?
As for the Jets... I wouldn't count them out because I would never count out a Rex Ryan-coached defense, but yeah, I'd be surprised if they made a playoff push, let alone challenged the Patriots this year.
6. Don't the Chiefs seem a bit overhyped this preseason?
Yes and no. Coaching and quarterback play can make a huge difference, and the Chiefs really didn't get either last year. Andy Reid, for all his foibles and faults, is a good head coach until you ask him to manage the clock. He'll build an offensive line, coach up a quarterback, and get the offense moving. The defense will be a wholly different problem, ranked 30th in Adjusted DVOA last year. However, they seem to be on the right track on paper, picking up some cornerbacks to help shore up the secondary at the very least.
Still, the question remains whether Alex Smith is going to step right in and provide the rock that Donovan McNabb was in his prime seasons, or whether he'll end up being a stopgap like Doug Pedersen (who is currently the offensive coordinator for Reid). Many people seem to be banking on the former, because the Chiefs are a hot team to take the second wild card in the AFC this year, after the requisite AFC North second place team. Personally, I think things might get a bit worse for Reid before they get better, but with the Chargers and Raiders in the same division, the record may not reflect how low things might dip for them this year.
7. How much do you think the Colts will resist regression with Andrew Luck getting his old offensive coordinator from college back?
First, let's go into how lucky the Colts were last year. Their defense was a pitiful 31st overall in Adjusted DVOA, and Luck's completion percentage was a disappointing 54.1 percent. Despite those numbers, the Colts went 11-5. Why? A soft schedule contributed to their success. Fumble luck was generally in their favor. They had above average special teams. Those things can combine to let a team play above its paygrade.
The Colts are definitely a prime candidate to sink back to the pack, but Pep Hamilton coming to the team to replace Bruce Arians as offensive coordinator is actually an improvement. With emphasis on the running game, improvement in the running back corps (both from Vick Ballard getting better and the upgrade in position by acquiring Ahmad Bradshaw), and implementation of familiar passing routes for Luck, the offense may improve this year. Also, with Chuck Pagano ostensibly sticking around for 16 games and hopefully recovered from his cancer, the defense could improve just by his presence alone.
But the possibility remains that the Colts could be a better team this year and still have a worse record. Luck (the phenomenon, not the quarterback) played that much of a factor in their success last year. I could be wrong, or they could get lucky again this year, but right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see them drift back to 8-8 and miss the playoffs.
8. What player needs to stay healthy the most this season?
I'd say Tom Brady, but who's to say that Ryan Mallet isn't better than Matt Cassel was when he stepped in for Tommy Dreamboat? I'd say Peyton Manning, but they have enough running backs and explosive wide receivers that Brock Osweiler will have one heck of a learning curve. The Niners defense has so many playmakers. However, if one player exists as a lynchpin for any team in the league, that man would be Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have so many unknown quantities at running back, and even with Clay Matthews wreaking havoc in backfields, that defense can't stop a pee-wee team from gashing it for 400 yards and 28 points a game.
With Rodgers turning any wide receiver he can into an all-star with no semblance of a running game, that offense can churn out enough points to overcome any deficit, and if their defense can somehow get a few stops, he can turn a close game into a boat race before the other team knows what hit them. With Rodgers, the Packers are probably set to make a run to the Super Bowl. Without him? They could finish last in the division.
9. Who are your playoff teams?
Disclaimer on this, I may ignore everything I typed above to predict the following, since everything I understand about football in the offseason tends to get proven wrong anyway. These are all gut picks, uneducated and the like.
In the AFC, I've got the Patriots, Bengals, Texans, and Broncos winning their divisions with the Bills (!) and Ravens nabbing wild cards. Pats and Broncos get byes. Wild Card weekend sees the Bengals beating the Bills and the Ravens besting the Texans. In a rematch of the Rocky Mountain Rainbow game, the Broncos get their win and move onto the AFC Championship game to take on the Bengals, who get to Tom Brady on a consistent basis and shock the Pats in Foxboro. At Mile High, the Broncos find a way to put the Bengals away to make it to their first Super Bowl since John Elway retired.
In the NFC, the division winners are the Giants, Packers, Falcons, and 49ers, with the Seahawks and Lions in the wild cards. Packers and Falcons are your bye weeks. Seahawks upset the Giants, but it's not really an upset because c'mon now. The Niners upend the Lions, and yes, Jim Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz shake hands without incident after the game (MAYBE). Divisional playoff weekend sees the Seahawks and Packers get into a relative shootout that ends with the 'Hawks scoring on their last possession to win the game. Niners for the second straight year march into the Georgia Dome and defeat the Falcons. NFC Championship Game in Frisco, after splitting their divisional games, the Niners punch their ticket back to the Super Bowl in a hard-fought, physical, chippy contest.
The Super Bowl in New York will be rematch of Super Bowl XXIV, and while I don't foresee a blowout by the Niners here, I do think the end result is the same. After coming up short the year before, the Niners take out the Broncos and win their sixth Super Bowl Championship.
10. I haven't forgotten about college! How do you see that season shaking out?
The reason why I'm relegating college talk to one question out of all this is that I'm not as comfortable speaking from a position of authority on it as I am at the NFL. However, if you want more insight, go to SB Nation and check out all their college football material, whether it be on the main SBN site, the catch-all site Every Day Should Be Saturday, or their many team specific blogs like Black Heart, Gold Pants and Black Shoe Diaries for example.
With that disclaimer out of the way, here are my wholly uneducated picks for the FINAL YEAR OF THE BCS, WOOOOOO! I've got Georgia beating Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game, Stanford besting Arizona in the PAC-12 title game, Ohio State avenging their loss from the week before against Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game, Clemson besting Miami in the ACC, Baylor scorching the earth en route to the Big 12 regular season title, Boise State going wire to wire unbeaten in the Mountain West, Ohio coming out on top with RED HOT MACTION, Louisville winning the inaugural AAC title in disappointing fashion (read, with two or more losses), Western Kentucky winning the Sun Belt.
I have Stanford grinding out the Rose Bowl over Ohio State, Baylor and Louisville setting EVERY SINGLE OFFENSIVE POSTSEASON RECORD EVER in the Fiesta (Baylor wins, Fatality), Oregon scoring an upset over Texas A&M in the Sugar Bowl, and Clemson Clemsoning against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. In the BCS Championship Game, Boise State and Georgia take it to overtime, where Boise State answers a Georgia touchdown with one of their own and showing their guts by going for two on the first possession. After successfully running the Annexation of Puerto Rico for the score, they celebrate finally breaking through the glass ceiling and ending the SEC's reign of dominance, causing the folks who inexplicably hate the underdog in college football to welcome the end of the BCS and the beginning of the Plus One era, where dinky programs like Boise who don't play SEC schedules have to win two games to win the title, PAWWWWL.